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China's Exports Increased for the First Time in Six Months

Asia Manufacturing Review Team | Thursday, 07 December 2023

 Asia Manufacturing Review Team

BEIJING: China's exports increased for the first time in six months in November, according to customs statistics released on Thursday, indicating that the industrial sector may be benefiting from an increase in global trade flows.

China's exports climbed by 0.5% year on year in November, compared to a 6.4% loss in October and exceeding the 1.1% drop predicted in a Reuters poll. Imports dipped 0.6% in November after increasing 3.0% in October.

The mixed manufacturing data for November has kept requests for additional policy support to maintain growth alive, but it has also prompted questions about whether primarily negative sentiment-based surveys have obscured improvements in circumstances.

The Baltic Dry Index, a leading indicator of global trade, reached a three-year high in November, boosted by increased demand for industrial goods, particularly from China.

South Korean exports, another indicator of global trade health, increased for the second month in a row in November, boosted by semiconductor exports, which ended a 15-month drop.

Analysts say it is too early to know whether recent policy support will be sufficient to shore up domestic demand, with property, unemployment, and low household and business confidence threatening a long-term recovery. Analysts warn that the manufacturing industry is also moving at varying speeds across industries.

The International Monetary Fund raised its China growth predictions for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4 percentage point apiece in November. However, Moody's issued a downgrade warning on China's A1 credit rating on Tuesday.