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China's Manufacturing and Retail Sectors are Expanding, But Uncertainties Remain

Asia Manufacturing Review Team | Friday, 15 December 2023

 Asia Manufacturing Review Team

BEIJING: China's industrial output increased 6.6 percent year on year in November, faster than the 4.6 percent increase in October, while retail sales rose but fell short of expectations, adding to evidence that Beijing's recent intervention is helping to stabilise the economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) output figures issued on Friday topped experts' forecasts for a 5.6 percent increase in a Reuters poll, making it the highest growth since September 2022.

Retail sales increased by 10.1% in November, following a 7.6% gain in October. Analysts predicted a 12.5% increase in retail sales in 2022, owing to a low base impact caused by COVID regulations that disturbed consumers and businesses.

Fixed asset investment increased by 2.9 percent in the first 11 months of 2023, falling short of forecasts for a 3% increase. It increased by 2.9% between January and October.

In recent months, China's basket of policy support measures has begun to stabilise some sections of the world's second-largest economy, but a long-running housing crisis, a downturn in global growth, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on overall activity.

Friday's news comes on the heels of several November indications that show the economy struggling to gain traction. Imports increased for the first time in six months, but analysts blamed this on manufacturers offering unsustainable discounts, and imports contracted once more. Consumer prices plummeted at the fastest rate in three years, deepening industrial deflation.

Analysts have warned that unless officials take steps to realign the economy towards domestic consumption and market-allocation of resources, China may fall into Japanese-style stagnation later this decade.

According to policy advisers, the government would need to adopt further stimulus if it wants to maintain an annual economic growth objective of "around 5%" next year, which would be the same as this year's plan.

Top officials announced on Tuesday that they will increase policy modifications to help economic recovery in 2024, with an emphasis on increasing local demand in light of the global economic slump.