China's iron ore imports are expected to reach a new peak in 2025, driven by stockpiling of cheaper ore despite the ongoing property crisis that continues to suppress steel demand. The increase in imports is attributed to a surge in supply from major producers like Australia and Brazil. These suppliers aim to sell off ore ahead of the launch of the Simandou iron ore project later in 2025, which is expected to flood the market with new supplies.  Analysts and traders predict imports could rise by 10 million to 40 million metric tons, reaching as high as 1.27 billion tons, surpassing the anticipated record volumes of 2024.

This additional output is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, which analysts expect to range between US$75 and US$120 per ton in 2025, compared to US$88 to US$144 per ton in 2024. UBS' head of EMEA mining, Myles Allsop, predicts a moderate surplus in 2025, with prices stabilizing around US$95-100 per ton before potentially falling further in 2026 and 2027.

Despite a weak steel sector, which consumes the majority of iron ore, China's port stockpiles are projected to rise to as much as 170 million tons in 2025. Current stocks have already increased 28.3% year-on-year to 146.85 million tons as of December 27, 2024. This is because China imported 1.124 billion tons of iron ore in the first 11 months of 2024, which is up 4.3% from the same period in 2023, even as crude steel output declined by 2.7%.

The rising imports reflect sustained confidence among traders and suppliers in China's long-term iron ore demand despite the ongoing challenges in its property sector. This demand underscores China's position as the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, buying over two-thirds of global seaborne cargoes