According to Trend, Kazakhstan anticipates a slow decline in Brent oil prices in the upcoming years. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) report on monetary policy for 2024–2026 states that the rise in oil production from non-OPEC+ nations has caused projections for the global price of Brent oil to be revised down.

NBK anticipated that oil prices will be fixed at $80 per barrel starting this year. The agreement to extend the reduction of oil output by 2.2 million barrels between Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members during the first quarter of 2024 will help this.

This will cause a minor oil shortfall to develop on the global market in the first quarter of 2024. Oil prices are predicted to gradually drop starting in 2026 as a result of the anticipated rise in oil production by non-OPEC+ nations and more moderate global economic growth.

According to the base case scenario, the price of Brent oil would stay around $80 per barrel until the end of 2025 before progressively dropping to $75 per barrel by the end of 2026.

In addition to the basic scenario, alternative scenarios for the dynamics of the global oil price were also taken into consideration at the same time due to the uncertainties surrounding the direction of the world economy.

Therefore, it is anticipated that the world oil price would reach $100 per barrel in September of this year and stay there until the conclusion of the projection period within the parameters of the optimistic scenario.

Furthermore, in the event that the world's demand for oil declines, a negative scenario is taken into account. This scenario postulates that the price of Brent oil will fall to $60 per barrel in September of this year and stay there through the end of 2026.