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Oil Prices Remain Stable Despite Concerns Over Demand and Middle East Tensions

Asia Manufacturing Review Team | Tuesday, 13 February 2024

 Asia Manufacturing Review Team

Oil prices experienced minimal movement on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of relative stability. Uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate adjustments in the United States and their potential impact on fuel consumption overshadowed concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, which could disrupt oil supply.

Brent futures saw a marginal decline of 1 cent, settling at $81.99 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude inched up by 1 cent to reach $76.93 per barrel. This minor fluctuation follows a similarly subdued trading session on Monday, following a notable 6% increase in prices the previous week.

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have consistently supported oil prices. Notably, Monday saw Israel conducting a daring rescue operation in Rafah, resulting in the release of two Israeli-Argentine hostages held by Hamas. However, the operation also led to casualties, with 74 Palestinians losing their lives. Despite these developments, concerns about interest rates have tempered the market's optimism.

The New York Federal Reserve's January Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the outlook for inflation remains unchanged, with projections for both one-year and five-year periods remaining above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%. Any delay in interest rate adjustments due to inflationary concerns could potentially dampen oil demand by slowing economic growth.

Investor attention remains focused on upcoming economic data releases. Tuesday is expected to bring U.S. inflation figures, while Wednesday will see the release of British inflation data and euro zone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Additionally, industry data on U.S. crude inventories is anticipated later on Tuesday, with analysts estimating an average increase of approximately 2.6 million barrels for the week ending February 9th.